Sunday, July 20, 2008

The price of oil is at an all time high because the supply is low and the demand is high. The proposal for the Untied States to drill in Alaska's wildlife preserve and other offshore locations, in order to increase the supply is flawed and therefore will not reduce the price. It assumes some conditions which will not produce the desired outcome. The arguments here will ignore the environmental impact.

First, once the process of drilling is started it will take 10 to 20 years before any actual oil is refined. Plans need to be prepared and approved, infrastructure needs to be put in place, facilities need to be built and tested and workers need to be hired and moved to communities in Alaska which need to be built. So there will be no increased production for some time, if ever.

Second, the only reason oil companies can afford to drill is because the current price of a barrel of oil is near $100 per barrel. When the price of a barrel was $50 each there was little return on investment for offshore oil. Now the price is sufficient to recover the 10 to 20 years of investing of drilling in such a harsh environment.

Third, the oil companies need to become energy companies and expand into 'alternate' energy in order to survive. Their business model is currently based on a consumable product which has a finite existence. That is the oil will be gone some day. So in order to continue, those companies need to expand into other fuel sources., like switch grass to make ethanol fuel additive and fly wheel energy storage. By shifting their core product from fossil fuel to renewable fuel their viability is assured into the future. So if the oil companies took the money they would spend on developing oil from the Alaska wildlife sanctuary and extensive offshore sites then put that money into research for alternate energy their fiscal future is more secure.

These three reasons sidestep the environmental question about using and acquiring fossil fuel. There are clear economic reasons for the oil companies to abandon exploration in Alaska and some offshore sites and get on with the business of supplying energy to the people of the world. As the number of people who require energy increases the oil companies need to become energy companies and transition away from fossil fuel and onto alternates. That is the only course of action which will produce profits for them and their share holders and the energy we need to power our lives.

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